Mariners Preview: A better team, on paper

Editor's note: David Andriesen has covered the Mariners for the Seattle P-I since 2001.

1. How would you grade Bill Bavasi's offseason moves?

Working within the constraints he has -- namely, that he's under pressure to win now and can't take a step back, as might have been the more logical path from a purely baseball perspective -- he did about as well as anyone could have hoped. He went into the winter with the sole goal of improving the starting pitching, and he landed the best available free agent starter (Carlos Silva) and the second-best starter available by trade (Erik Bedard). No matter what happens, he deserves credit for that.

2. Was the Bedard trade a good one for the Mariners?

Was it good from the perspective of winning this year? Definitely. Will the Mariners be kicking themselves five years from now for making it? That depends on whether they sign Bedard long-term and how good Adam Jones & Co. turn out to be. If they get two years of mediocrity from Bedard in exchange for a guy who's an elite center fielder for a decade, it will haunt them.

3. Is this a better club than the 88-win team of a year ago?

On paper, yes. What they lost offensively with Jose Guillen is more than made up for by the improvement in starting pitching and another year of maturity for their young hitters. But you have to keep in mind that last year's team, by most metrics, significantly overachieved in the win column. So even if this team is better, it doesn't necessarily mean that will translate in the standings.

4. Who will lead the Mariners in wins?

Most projections say Bedard, but I think Felix Hernandez is poised for a breakout year. While Bedard is adjusting to a new team, Felix has another year of maturity and experience, not to mention added motivation in Bedard's ace status.

5. Who will lead the team in home runs?

Adrian Beltre really found his groove last year, and could have a huge season -- I think he could be good for 35 homers. The caveat is that he remains healthy and is able to tough out playing with the torn ligament in his left thumb. It would be difficult to overstate how important his health is to the season.

6. How good will the Mariners be defensively?

Very good. If there's one area of the game Mariners fans can feel confident about, it's defense. The outfield is captained by Ichiro Suzuki, as good a center fielder as there is anywhere, and the infield boasts Gold Glove third baseman Beltre and a double-play combination that has unlimited potential (as long as Jose Lopez keeps his focus). The left side of the infield is just plain fun to watch.

7. Does the club have enough offense to compete with the Angels?

Probably not. The Mariners have taken a half-step back from last year, while the Angels have taken two steps forward. And the Angels were better to begin with. Seattle is banking that it won't come down to offense.

8. What do you anticipate from Richie Sexson?

The Mariners kept him for two reasons: They would have to pay most of his salary whether he was playing for them or someone else, and he couldn't possibly be as bad as last year. It's inconceivable that a healthy player with his talent could put up another .205, or anything like it. I can see him batting .265 with 30 homers, and the Mariners would be thrilled.

9. What will be John McLaren's greatest challenge?

Managing his own expectations. He's a first-year manager with big ideas about what he wants his team to be philosophically, and even in spring training you could see his frustration that he can't will them into the identity that he wants. A team has a lot of moving parts, and people don't change easily.

10. What will Ichiro's season-ending stats line look like?

Given his eerie consistency, I'd tend to go with his career averages: .333 batting, 231 hits, 62 RBIs. But McLaren's challenge to him to steal a lot of bases could bear fruit -- let's say he breaks 50, but at the cost of being caught 20 times.

11. How many games will the Mariners win, and where will they finish in the AL West?

I'll say 90, and still can't decide whether that's optimistic or pessimistic. They could win 95 or 75, and between their potential and the things that can go wrong, neither would really shock me. I feel much more confident saying they'll be second to the Angels.

12. Which AL teams will make the playoffs, and which one will go to the World Series?

The divisions should play out according to popular predictions: Los Angeles in the West, Detroit in the Central and Boston in the East. The wild card must always be assumed to be coming out of the East, and if the Yankees' rotation holds up, they'll win a lot of games. As for the World Series, the Red Sox are the best team until someone convinces me otherwise.