Mariners Farm Report: Waiting on Triunfel

By most accounts, shortstop Carlos Triunfel began the 2008 season as the Mariners organization's top prospect. In his first pro season, the Dominican Republic native flashed the physical skills of a future star, and most scouts projected even more from him in year two.

But it hasn't happened ... yet.

Triunfel ended the 2007 campaign having hit .296 combined at two stops in Class A ball, displaying an ability to make consistent contact and showcasing plus tools across the board. He managed just 22 extra-base hits, but spent the entire season at the age of 17, making him the youngest player in the California League last year.

"I saw a lot of projectable ability," one scout said of Triunfel's first taste of baseball in the U.S. "He came with the same inconsistencies you expect in a young player like that, but not many have the athletic skills he has. It's just a matter of time before the numbers follow his abilities."

Most believed the numbers were coming this season, as Triunfel turned 18 and was headed back to High Desert to repeat the hitter-friendly California League. But through the first half of his second professional season, Triunfel continues to display the same inconsistencies, and has yet to flip the power switch.

In 62 games, Triunfel -- often referred to as "Baby Tejada" after All-Star shortstop Miguel Tejada -- has just 13 extra-base hits, although he did smack his first career home run on June 10 versus Rancho Cucamonga.

"Again, he's given us all a peek at what he's capable of," an American League area scout said. "There is so much more in there, and you can see it, but it's only come in flashes so far. Some of that may be due to the aggressive nature in which the Mariners have chosen to push him, which means you throw the statistics out the window.

"He's still the youngest everyday player in Advanced A and he has certainly improved. Only you can't see it in the numbers."

While scouts still see stardom in Triunfel's future, detractors cite the lack of power and streaky nature as a major red flag. But Triunfel would not be the first teenager to struggle to such levels in his first few seasons and go on to become among the game's best players.

Detroit Tigers slugger Miguel Cabrera hit .344 and .382 in his first two pro seasons at ages 17 and 18, and he didn't reach Advanced A ball until the age of 19. Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Rafael Furcal, the National League rookie of the year in 2001 and an All-Star in 2006, hit just two home runs in his first three professional seasons. Ray Durham, a two-time All-Star second baseman, did not hit his first pro home run until the age of 21 when he started the season in Double-A. Durham is closing in on 800 big league extra-base hits in 14 seasons in the majors.

Perhaps the most telling example is Toronto Blue Jays All-Star outfielder Alex Rios, who combined for three long balls and a .342 slugging percentage in his first three years. It wasn't until his fifth year that Rios would reach double-digits in homers.

Rios, 27, has combined for 44 major league homers and a slugging percentage nearing .500 since the start of the 2006 season.

Triunfel has similar physical abilities as many of the aforementioned big leaguers, so it's not yet time to doubt his future.

"Not at all," the AL area scout said. "He's raw, he's 18 years old and he's facing pitchers three and four years older. He has really quick hands and is still learning how to throw them through the strike zone while getting some loft on his line drives. I see he's drawing walks at a much-improved pace and he's still making an awful lot of contact.

"I still think there's 20-25 homers in that bat, and he's easily the most impressive talent I have seen from Seattle's farm system since Felix Hernandez came through. At some point over the next 600 or 700 at-bats, that kid is probably going to pop. And when he does, it will be fun, at least for the Mariners."

TOP 10 PROSPECTS

The Mariners' top 10 prospects not currently in the major leagues:

1. Carlos Triunfel, SS, High Desert (High Class A): Has hit safely in nine of 10 games and is hitting .333 in July after a rough June.

2. Adam Moore, C, West Tenn (Double-A): Moore has been an All-Star quality performer since the end of April; could see Tacoma next month.

3. Phillippe Aumont, RHP, Wisconsin (Class A): Mariners' top pitching prospect remains on the shelf to rest his arm and curb his workload.

4. Greg Halman, CF, West Tenn: The 20-year-old has held his own since promotion with four homers and five doubles.

5. Wladimir Balentien, RF, Tacoma (Triple-A): Balentien is rediscovering his power stroke and improving contact rates.

6. Michael Saunders, RF, Tacoma: Performing well in Triple-A, but has missed past four games with hamstring injury.

7. Dennis Raben, 1B, Everett (short season): Second-round pick has 10 hits -- six for extra bases -- in first 12 pro at-bats.

8. Matt Tuiasosopo, 3B, Tacoma: After hitting .293 with a .944 OPS in June, Tui is back on track.

9. Juan Ramirez, RHP, Wisconsin: Hitting first tough stretch of the season, but the stuff, including a 94-mph fastball, is still there.

10. Mario Martinez, 3B, Pulaski (rookie): The 18-year-old is off to a red-hot start, hitting .352 with 10 extra-base hits in 18 games