Inside Baseball: Sky's the limit for A-Rod; can Mariners compete?

In an indication that this will not be your father's free agency, agent Scott Boras is already producing a 50-page brochure on the importance of being Alex, titled "Alex Rodriguez: A Historical Perspective." You can almost imagine the scene in major league front offices when the hernia-producing epic is delivered:

Hey, Kevin. Have you ever heard about this Alex Rodriguez kid? He sounds like he's a pretty good player. And if I'm reading this correctly, I think he's a free agent, too.

Boras also declared this week that Rodriguez will finish with 772 home runs -- 17 more than Hank Aaron -- if he plays until age 40, as if that's all there is to it, as if the game can be so easily predicted, as if performances are as easily replicated as intelligence-insulting, profit-reaping Adam Sandler comedies.

This week's graphic:
"Great Expectations"

But don't underestimate Boras. The very mention of his name is enough to frighten children and reduce grown men to tears, but regardless of the people he alienates, his methods usually result in staggering contracts for his clients. And the one he negotiates for Alex will be enough to leave Bill Gates checking his couch for spare change.

Rodriguez is the best shortstop in the game. He has power. He hits for a high average. He has speed. He plays excellent defense. He is only 25. He is handsome. He is bilingual. He is a polished speaker.

How much can he get? Well, that's the whole point of free agency, but if Carlos Delgado can command $17 million a year without declaring free agency, my over/under for Alex is $25 million a year. That may sound staggering, but if I've learned two things covering baseball, they are: one, never stand in front of a hungry sportswriter in a free, all-you-can-eat buffet line, and two, never underestimate how high salaries can rise. If NASA engineers could design rockets that rise as consistently and rapidly as player salaries and owner profits, we would not only have colonized Pluto by now, the Twins would be threatening to move there unless they get a new stadium.

If money were the only issue, the Mariners, with their new local and national TV contracts, could afford to re-sign Rodriguez. But salary is not the only issue -- the bright lights of a big market are too enticing for him, and he is too methodical to let sentiment sway him.

My guess? There is very little chance he re-signs with Seattle.

While waiting to see what happens, here's a look ahead at how negotiations might go:

Nov. 10: The Mariners make their initial offer to Rodriguez: a 10-year, $200 million contract and a proposal to move in the fences at Safeco Field 10 feet. Boras tells them to get back to him when they're serious.

Nov. 12: Atlanta offers Rodriguez $250 million and promises to give him a locker on the opposite side of the clubhouse from John Rocker.

Nov. 13: The Dodgers offer Rodriguez $275 million to play shortstop and Boras $2 million to be their general manager.

Nov. 15: The Yankees join the bidding frenzy when owner George Steinbrenner offers Rodriguez $225 million and proposes a revolutionary dual-shortstop infield.

Nov. 17: The Brewers offer Rodriguez a three-week, $2.75 million contract.

Nov. 19: Boras gets the Reds involved in the bidding, hinting to general manager Jim Bowden that what Alex really wants is to play in Cincinnati so he can be closer to Ken Griffey Jr.'s family.

Nov. 20: Following up the success of "Alex Rodriguez: A Historical Perspective," Boras places an astounding four more books on the New York Times bestseller list: "Alex Rodriguez and the Goblet of Fire," "Tuesdays With Alex," "The Greatest Shortstop of His Generation," and "Who Moved My Free Agent?"

Nov. 21: The Mariners up their offer to $250 million and promise to move in the fences 15 feet. Boras puts their number on call screening.

Nov. 22: After a long, painstaking review of their financial resources, the Twins call Boras to place a bid, mistakenly thinking that it is Frankie Rodriguez who is available.

Nov. 23: Boras and Rodriguez take that traditional annual break to give thanks to their brave forefathers who carved a society from a wilderness, enabling them to enjoy their bountiful harvest. After saluting Curt Flood, Dave McNally and Andy Messersmith, they sit down to a Thanksgiving dinner.

Nov. 26: As part of his free-agency concept, Boras opens the musical "A-Rod-Mania" at the Winter Garden Theater in New York, replacing "Cats." It's not A-Rod, just an incredible simulation.

Nov. 28: After Rodriguez rejects the Dodgers' old offer, Fox entertainment owner Rupert Murdoch buys the broadcast rights to Alex for twice as much as any other network offers.

Dec. 1: Rodriguez rejects Atlanta's final offer of $275 million and a promise to make Rocker dress in the parking lot.

Dec. 4: Boras rejects the Rockies' final offer of Colorado and Wyoming.

Dec. 7: The Mariners make their final offer: nine and a half years, $250 million and they move in the fences 30 feet. "But that's it," team president Chuck Armstrong says. "We physically cannot move the fences in any farther."

Dec. 8: Boras rejects Seattle's offer.

Dec. 9: The Mariners propose moving out home plate 15 feet.

Dec. 11: The Yankees back out of the Rodriguez negotiations, saying the shortstop is too expensive. Instead, they sign Mike Hampton, Manny Ramirez, Mike Mussina, Juan Gonzalez and Ichiro Suzuki.

Dec. 12: Rodriguez signs with the Mets, taking over as shortstop/CEO. In his initial act as baseball's first player/owner, Rodriguez forecloses on Manhattan.

Dec. 13: Griffey demands that the Reds re-negotiate his contract.

How will it all play out? We'll see. One thing for sure: No matter where Alex signs, the Mariners undoubtedly will use it as an excuse for why they can't afford to pay for the cost overruns on the new stadium.

Roll call

Yes, there are other free agents out there besides Alex. It's just not the Mother of All Lists it figured to be last winter, what with Griffey, Chipper Jones, Jim Edmonds and Roger Clemens signing contract extensions in the past year. But if the list of declared and potential free agents isn't what it could have been, there are several mighty interesting names on it.

Manny Ramirez, Indians: He had more RBIs than games played for the second consecutive season, but it's very unlikely he will re-sign with Cleveland, which was turned off by the way he nursed an injury in June. Expect the Yankees, who care nothing about defense, to push hard for the New York native.

Mike Mussina, Orioles: He's the top right-handed starter on the market, with the New York teams and Boston among those interested. Imagine him backing up Pedro Martinez at Fenway.

Mike Hampton, Mets: The best lefty available. The Mets will push hard to re-sign him. Atlanta and the Yankees will bid hard as well.

Juan Gonzalez, Tigers: The Mariners tried to trade for him this summer, but now he's available as a free agent, and likely at a considerable discount, compared to the $140 million offer from the Tigers he turned down last winter. Gonzalez dumped his agent and hired Boras, who will be hard-pressed to get anything remotely close to Detroit's old offer after a poor, injury-filled season.

Denny Neagle, Yankees: Neagle finally reached the goal he had been seeking, a World Series title, last week and is less interested in hooking on with another guaranteed contender than finding a spot where he'll be comfortable. His poor half with the Yankees and short outings in the postseason probably drove his price down.

Other players of note: pitchers Darren Dreifort, Rick Reed, Pat Hentgen, Andy Ashby, Cal Eldred and Kevin Appier; catchers Charles Johnson, Sandy Alomar and Todd Hundley; first basemen Mark Grace, Andres Galarraga and David Segui; second baseman Brett Boone; shortstops Mike Bordick and Alex Gonzalez; third baseman Ken Caminiti; and outfielders Derek Bell, Paul O'Neill and Tony Gwynn.

Gwynn was given doctor's permission to resume baseball activity, but he's 40 and played only 38 games last year. It's questionable how much interest in him there will be outside San Diego.

P-I reporter Jim Caple can be reached at 206-448-8006 or jimcaple@seattle-pi.com

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