Sonics' early success may not be true indicator of final standing

The Sonics took yesterday off, a reward of sorts after winning three of four games on a road trip that concluded Saturday with a 98-90 victory in Chicago.

It was a day for rest, and a time for reflection because the Sonics stood at the exact same point a season ago right down to the day off.

Eight games into the schedule, the Sonics have just completed their first multiple-city road trip. Same as last season.

The team won three games on its first extended road trip. Same as last season.

They are 6-2 overall after eight games. Same as last season.

The other similarity: It's too early to read too much into that. Because the Sonics' fast start faded last season as they finished 40-42, their first losing record in 16 years.

And from that perspective, today marks a different sort of one-year anniversary for Seattle.

It was the high-water point for last season. They beat the Los Angeles Clippers 84-78 last Nov. 17 to improve to 8-2 and remain first in the Pacific Division.

It didn't just go downhill from there. The wheels fell off.

From Nov. 18 to Feb. 15, the Sonics were 13-28. Denver was the only Western Conference team to have a worse record in that span.

So early returns can be misleading, especially if the quality of opponents isn't taken into account. In the first eight games of last season, Seattle beat one team that had made the playoffs in 2002. That was Utah. In the first eight games this season, the Sonics beat two teams that made the playoffs in 2003: Portland and Minnesota.

And early in the season, teams can make up a talent gap with their gumption. How else can you explain Utah and Milwaukee having five wins apiece? Those were two teams expected to be among the five worst in the league and yet neither has a losing record entering the fourth week of the season.

The first month of an NBA season is no time to be drawing conclusions because many teams are at neither full strength nor full speed.

"Teams are going to start to get themselves in shape," coach Nate McMillan said after Friday's loss in Indianapolis. "They're going to start playing better basketball, execution is going to be better, defensive intensity is going to be better. It's still November, it's still early, and teams are trying to figure out who they are."

And everyone is trying to figure out just how the Sonics have started so strong despite missing Ray Allen. When he underwent surgery on his ankle, it was thought the Sonics would be playing catch-up once he got back. Instead they have an early cushion in part because of how well Ronald Murray has filled in, leading the team in scoring in four of the past six games.

In 29 games for Seattle last season, Allen averaged 24.5 points, 5.6 rebounds, 5.9 assists and 1.59 steals. In eight games this season, Murray's averages are 23.1 points, 4.8 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 1.38 steals.

Can he keep that up for the next four weeks Allen is expected to miss? Too early to say, but like the rest of the Sonics' start to the season, the early returns are positive.