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Wednesday, November 19, 2003
State's jobless rate falls to 7%, but private sector remains sluggish
The Washington state jobless rate dropped to 7 percent last month, a hopeful sign of a recovering economy that was tempered by the fact the region still did not create many new jobs.
After hovering at 7.6 percent for the past two months, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell in October to its lowest level since March, the Employment Security Department reported yesterday.
Unfortunately, the private sector, the prime engine for economic recovery, generated a modest 3,000 new jobs statewide, although the Seattle area managed to lose 2,600 private jobs, according to state data.
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So, job hunters are still struggling to find work, according to one job counselor.
"It's no joke trying to find a job out there," said Charles Howlett, a trainer at Goodwill's STRIVE job training program. "We are definitely seeing a more protracted ... job-search period."
The precise reasons, though, for the large decline in the jobless rate are unclear.
A host of factors may have pushed it down, such as a jump in self-employment and harvest work, as well as government agencies resuming normal hiring paces after a weak September, according to Roberta Pauer, a Seattle-based economist for the Employment Security Department.
It's also important to remember the jobless rate can fluctuate because it's an estimate, not a precise reading of the job market, Pauer points out.
While still good news, the drop isn't a sign that a robust economic rebound is around the corner, as the number of private jobs is still 102,000 below where it was when the recession began in 2001, Pauer says.
"Although we are still a long way from a full-scale labor market recovery, there has been significant improvement over the month," Employment Security Commissioner Sylvia Mundy said.
Looking ahead, economists want to see three to five months of job growth to prove a recovery is taking hold.
"The outlook over several years, however, is for slow but steady improvement in our job growth and unemployment rate," Pauer said.
Even though it lost private-sector jobs last month, Seattle saw its unemployment rate drop to 6.5 percent in October from 7.3 percent in September.
Even if the job market tightens up in the coming months, Pauer urges job seekers to take temporary employment.
"Make yourself useful, then in the winter (and later on) ... they will know who you are."
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