Aerospace Notebook: Long-range bragging rights to return to Boeing

But while the longer-range jet was in development, Airbus grabbed market share and a lot of attention in this still-developing, ultra-long-range market segment.

The Airbus A340-500, currently the world's longest-range jetliner, has been hauling passengers for Singapore Airlines on 18-hour non-stop flights between New York and Singapore and Los Angeles and Singapore.

Emirates and a few other carriers also are operating the Airbus jet on some very long routes.

And while Airbus has 26 orders for the A340-500, of which it has delivered 16, Boeing has scored only five orders for the 777-200LR -- and none since November 2002.

Boeing, however, believes that will change.

It is confident that sales will pick up after the 777-200LR enters its flight test program, and with the delivery of the first plane next year to Pakistan International Airlines.

"We have been in a downturn and that has made things slow," said Randy Baseler, Boeing's vice president of marketing. "Now, we are picking up."

With a full load of 301 passengers, the 777-200LR will have a range of about 9,400 nautical miles, or around 900 nautical miles further than the A340-500, according to Boeing. But that must be proven in the upcoming test flights.

Boeing has assumed that the 777-200LR will enjoy similar performance improvements that were seen in its big sister, the 777-300ER. Now in service, the 777-300ER did better than engineers had predicted. It has a range of about 7,940 nautical miles.

In addition to two 777-200LR orders from Pakistan International Airlines, EVA of Taiwan has ordered three of the jets. But Baseler said Boeing is forecasting a market of around 300 ultra-long-range jets with 300 or more seats over the next 20 years.

That does not include another 200 freighters in that size class, he said.

Boeing recently announced it will develop a freighter version of the 777 based on the 777-200LR platform. The company is shopping the 777-200LR to a number of airlines, including Emirates and Air India.

Emirates, which has a growing fleet of A340-500s, has said it wants to know more about the 777-200LR

"We are re-educating ourselves about the --200LR in light of the performance improvements that Boeing found on the 300ER during flight testing that should apply to the other model," Tim Clark, president of Emirates, recently told the industry publication Flight International magazine.

Emirates, which operates other 777 models, including the 777-300ER, is also evaluating an extended range A340-500 that Airbus is now offering customers. It would close the range gap with the 777-200LR.

Air India is considering a large order from either Boeing or Airbus for widebody jets, including Boeing's new 787, the 777-300ER and 777-200LR. Airbus is offering its A340-600 and A340-500, as well as the planned A350 that will challenge the 787, formerly known as the 7E7

Singapore Airlines is another potential 777-200LR customer, even though it already has the A340-500. But Singapore is now Boeing's biggest 777 operator, and last year placed an order for 18 777-300ERs.

Some international carriers, including Malaysia Airlines, are waiting to see how the market develops before ordering ultra-long-range jets from either Boeing or Airbus.

This is considered a niche market.

Baseler said Boeing believes the market will continue to develop in two ways. Airlines will need planes with more range and capability to connect new distant city along with non-stop service. And some airlines will also want a plane that can carry more cargo on long-haul routes in addition to a full passenger load.

He used the example of New York to Hong Kong.

Boeing's 777-200ER, which has been one of the company's top-selling 777 models, can make the New York to Hong Kong flight with 300 passengers. But it can't do so with much cargo in its belly.

The 777-200LR, Baseler said, could carry all those passengers from New York to Hong Kong, plus 24 tons of revenue-generating cargo for the airline.

Boeing also sees potential 777-200LR orders from some customers that already have, or will have, the 777-300ER and may want a longer-range plane that has commonality with the 777-300ER.

The 777-300ER competes against the Airbus A340-600. Although the Airbus plane beat Boeing's jet to market by a couple of years, the 777-300ER has made up lost ground. Through January, Airbus had 114 orders for the A340-600, which carriers more passengers than the A340-500. Airbus has delivered 40 of the jets. Boeing had 99 orders for the 777-300ER as of the end of January. It has delivered 10. Last week, Japan Airlines, a 777-300ER customer, said it would convert two previous orders for the 767-300ER for two 777-300ERs.

Although Airbus has beaten Boeing in overall orders five of the past six years -- Boeing last won in 2000 -- Boeing had more sales of twin-aisle jets last year than Airbus. This includes the Airbus A330 and A340 family, and Boeing's 777 family and its new 787.

Baseler noted that Boeing also won the "long-haul" order battle last year -- the 777 vs. the A340.

Airbus had one A340-300 order last year, in addition to seven orders for the A340-500 and 20 for the A340-600.

Boeing had 12 orders for its 777-200ER, plus 28 for its 777-300ER.

But the 777-200LR was shut out. Baseler expects to see more order activity for the 777-200LR this year and certainly next year.

"It helps once the airplane starts flying, especially with a derivative model," he said.

As part of the upcoming 777-200LR flight test program, Boeing is expected to establish a series of world-record distance flights -- and in doing so provide an edge to its sales efforts.

The current "Great Circle Distance Without Landing" record is held by the 777-200ER, which flew 10,823 nautical miles (20,045 kilometers or 12,455 statute miles) from Seattle to Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, in 1997 during its flight testing. The flight lasted 21 hours and 13 minutes.

Topped off with gas and without passengers, the 777-200LR should easily beat that. Will it be able to fly a full day and night without landing? Boeing isn't saying.

The record will be nice.

But for Boeing, new orders for the world's longest-range jetliner would be even better.

Aerospace Notebook is a Wednesday feature by P-I aerospace reporter James Wallace. He can be reached at 206-448-8040 or jameswallace@seattlepi.com

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