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Thursday, June 9, 2005
Boeing's 20-year jetliner outlook: Up and up
Boeing boosts its estimate based on demand from Asian carriers
The Boeing Co. raised its 20-year forecast for worldwide jetliner deliveries by aircraft manufacturers by 2.8 percent because of demand from low-cost carriers in Asia.
The company said industrywide deliveries will be about 25,700 aircraft in the period, up from the 25,000 it predicted last July. That represents sales of $2.1 trillion, up from $2 trillion forecast earlier, Boeing said yesterday.
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Carriers in countries such as India, where three new airlines started flying in the past 24 months, are buying planes as deregulation and growing affluence boost air travel. Asian carriers will generate 36 percent of industry sales. Attempts to cut operating costs are driving demand for fuel-efficient planes like Boeing's new 787 Dreamliner and rival Airbus' planned A350.
"Single-aisle airplanes will dominate the market in the next 20 years because they allow airlines to offer more frequencies," Randy Baseler, vice president of marketing for Boeing's commercial aircraft division, said in the statement. "The long-term demand for new airplanes is going to remain very strong."
The forecast covers 2005 to 2024. Boeing boosted its expected industry sales for single-aisle, 90- to 200-seat planes by 3.7 percent to 15,300 from 14,750. That category includes its 737 and Airbus' A320. Demand for twin-aisle medium-size planes, such as Boeing's 777 and 787, as well as Airbus' A330, is expected to be 5,600 planes, up from 5,250.
Boeing currently has 266 order commitments for the 787 from 21 customers, Baseler said at a news conference in London. Of those commitments, 128 are firm orders from nine customers, he said.
There will be about 900 deliveries of aircraft with more than 400 seats in the period, up from an earlier forecast of 750, accounting for about 3 percent of total deliveries, Boeing said. These include passenger and freighter versions of Boeing's 747 and Airbus' new A380, scheduled to go into service late next year. Passenger planes account for 590 in the jumbo-category forecast, Baseler said.
Boeing expects worldwide passenger traffic to grow 4.8 percent a year over the period. The company expects the world's fleet of civil airliners to grow to 35,000 by 2024. Only 7,200 of the 25,700 planes in Boeing's forecast will be replacements for aging planes, Baseler said.
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