Boeing boosts estimate of jet demand

The Boeing Co. raised its 20-year industry forecast for world jetliner deliveries by 5.8 percent Wednesday because of increasing demand in Asia and the need for airlines to upgrade their fleets.

Plane manufacturers will deliver about 27,200 aircraft in the period, compared with the 25,700 Boeing predicted last year. That represents sales of $2.6 trillion, up from the $2.1 trillion forecast last year, Boeing, the world's second-largest commercial-jet maker, said.

"We're forecasting a continued strong long-term demand for new airplanes," Randy Baseler, Boeing's chief of marketing, said Wednesday in London. The increased forecast is the result of predicted "accelerated retirement" of less fuel-efficient planes amid high oil prices, he said.

Asian carriers in countries such as China and India, where governments are deregulating airlines and growing affluence is boosting air travel, will generate 36 percent of industry sales, Boeing said.

Airlines also are looking to save money with new fuel-efficient planes such as Boeing's 787 Dreamliner and the planned A350 from Airbus, the largest commercial-plane maker.

"We believe small planes are the more important market," Baseler said. "Passengers are bypassing mega-hub airports, which results in a decreased need for very large airplanes."

The forecast covers 2006 to 2025. Boeing lifted its industry sales projection for single-aisle, 100- to 240-seat planes 8.1 percent to 16,540. That category includes its 737 and Airbus' A320. Shipments of twin-aisle medium-sized planes, the industry's most lucrative category of aircraft, are expected to total 6,230, up 11 percent. Those jets include such models as Boeing's 777 and 787, as well as Airbus' A330 and A340.

Boeing also raised its assumption for oil prices to $50 a barrel from $35 used in last year's outlook, Baseler said. Those fuel costs will spur an increase in the number of new planes that will be used to retire older ones. The forecast for replacement planes rose 16 percent to 9,580, he said.

The company may take the lead in orders this year as Airbus copes with delays in its A380 and works to redesign the A350. Airbus parent European Aeronautic Defense and Space Co. ousted Co-Chief Executive Noel Forgeard and Airbus CEO Gustav Humbert after the A380 was delayed for six more months.

Boeing has 480 orders in 2006 after courting low-cost and international airlines, compared with just 117 for Airbus.

Boeing is likely to expand its lead in orders at next week's Farnborough International Airshow in England and may claim the top spot in bookings in 2006 for the first time in six years.

Deliveries of aircraft with more than 400 seats will climb to 990 from an earlier forecast of 900 planes, Boeing said.

That category accounts for about 3.6 percent of total deliveries, Boeing said, and includes passenger and freighter versions of Boeing's 747 and Airbus' new A380.

Boeing's plan for a larger version of the 787, known as the 787-10, will probably be announced this year, Baseler said. The plane will enter service in 2012, and compete against Airbus' planned A350.

Boeing won't try to match the passenger capacity of the 555-seat Airbus A380, which will fly in and out of large international airports fed by smaller aircraft coming from secondary airports, a so-called hub-and-spoke system.

"Twin-aisle airplanes will dominate the world fleet, providing more frequencies and increased non-stop service," Baseler said.

Boeing has published its industry market analysis, which tracks demand for air travel and aircraft, for more than 40 years.

The 36 percent growth rate forecast in the Asia-Pacific region will be driven by demand for twin-aisle airplanes, Boeing said. North America will account for 28 percent of total sales, with 24 percent coming from Europe. Latin America, the Middle East and Africa will account for 12 percent.

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