Seattle is on the global path

What it takes to be a world-class city

By ANDREA JAMES
P-I REPORTER

If Seattle is an international city, as its political leaders declare, its economy, people and appearance are subject to global trends.

Business leaders gained a glimpse of those trends -- economist-inspired insights into how global forces are already affecting downtown Seattle -- on Thursday morning at a State of Downtown economic forum.

Economists and researchers at Denver consulting firm Progressive Urban Management Associates have identified 10 global trends that affect downtown cores. Economist and company president Brad Segal presented the findings Thursday, along with data specific to Seattle.

Among the points:

The suburban life -- with its sport utility vehicles and big green lawns -- will become increasingly expensive because of long commutes and scarce natural resources, thus making downtowns more popular. Aging retirees and young people also are flocking to urban cores.

That means that Seattle's public schools need to improve, downtown needs to become more family-friendly and the city needs to offer diverse price points in housing, Segal said.

The growing national, mortgage and consumer debts, combined with more people retiring, could impede investment. "America's growing debt burden looms as an economic cloud," Segal said. "The type of stress it puts on us is astounding."

The cities of the future will be teeming with well-educated young women. They increasingly outnumber men in college enrollment and will form a majority of the work force by 2010. Seattle ranks fifth nationally in the number of college-educated young women.

Cities will appeal by giving those women fun things to do. "Women tend to recreate more than men," Segal said.

The cities with an advantage will be ones with strong public transportation systems. Transportation is Seattle's biggest vulnerability, Segal said.

For Seattle commuters, an average annual delay of 12 hours in 1982 increased to 45 hours in 2005.

The national population is surpassing the number of health care workers, although Seattle can safely say that it has a leading health care cluster, Segal said.

A recent state Employment Security Department report backs up his study. It found that health care industry jobs were in the greatest demand, accounting for one in five job vacancies.

As of last year, the majority of the planet lives in cities, and metropolises need to be greener and more sustainable. Seattle is a national leader with its climate action plan, Segal said.

A global emerging middle class means more tourists. The U.S. ranks third for international tourism, after France and Spain. Seattle will need to adapt, adding multilanguage signs, for example, to welcome visitors from various countries.

Seattle is a leading city for diversity and smart, young talent. The city ranks No. 1 in growth of 25- to 34-year-olds living close to the central business district. And diversity is increasing -- 17 percent of Seattle is foreign-born, and many residents are refugees, Segal said.

The Downtown Seattle Association also provided economic figures that show a vibrant downtown, despite the recent trickle of layoffs and negative national news. In 2007, downtown finally overcame the technology bust, association president Kate Joncas said.

"Seattle consistently outranks other major metro areas in key indicators," she said.

Downtown saw $1.1 billion in completed projects in 2007, $3 billion more under construction and $320 million in projects permitted.

The health of downtown is key to the state's economy, Gov. Chris Gregoire said. "As I look at the economy here, I look at the culture and I look at the diversity of our people, it is this that makes us so strong as a city."

P-I reporter Andrea James can be reached at 206-448-8124 or andreajames@seattlepi.com.

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