It's up to the voters, not the pundits

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Joel Connelly

Monday, September 25, 2006

It's up to the voters, not the pundits

By JOEL CONNELLY
P-I COLUMNIST

Grumpy ultraright Washington, D.C., pundit Robert Novak proclaimed in a weekend column that Mike McGavick's prospects against Sen. Maria Cantwell "have nearly collapsed because of the way he handled the revelation of a 13-year-old drunk driving charge."

Anxious to keep GOP control -- he is a mouthpiece for conservatives in the U.S. Capitol -- Novak sought to redirect support to Republican Tom Kean Jr. in New Jersey, where Democratic Sen. Bob Mendenez "is slipping."

Questions come to mind: What the heck does Novak know about our state? Could this conceited D.C. creature find the "other" Washington on a map?

"Conventional wisdom" has become a driving force in U.S. elections: Specifically, it drives donations and determines which candidates the political class takes seriously.

But "CW" produces bizarre behavior. Reporters in this state call up a premier "quote machine," University of Virginia professor Larry Sabato, to ask how our Senate and House races are going.

A majority of the shouting heads on "The McLaughlin Group" predicted in 1998 that GOP Rep. Linda Smith would unseat Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash. Murray won re-election with 58 percent of the vote.

Polls become totemlike objects, regardless -- or "irregardless," as George Bush would say -- of their methodology or suspect partisan sponsorship.

An outfit with Republican roots, Strategic Vision, has made a specialty of surveys showing that voters view Gov. Chris Gregoire as the Wicked Witch of the West.

Of course, McGavick lost ground after a police report disclosed new details of his 1993 DUI. After a successful statewide tour in July, and polls showing him within four to five points of Cantwell, her lead has returned to double figures.

A poll is a snapshot in time. Late changes can still transform a contest. In a 1988 Senate race managed by McGavick, Republican Slade Gorton trailed Democratic Rep. Mike Lowry by eight points with about 10 days left.

Against his own better judgment, Lowry went negative with a clunky ad. Gorton (and McGavick) responded with a witty TV spot: Outgoing GOP Sen. Dan Evans was shown putting on hip boots to deal with the mudslinging. The contest's late deciders went with Gorton, who won by 40,000 votes.

The voters have the ultimate say. They've wisely lived by Yogi Berra's maxim: It ain't over till it's over.

Democrats have so far run a seedy but savvy Senate campaign. They've gone negative against McGavick while Cantwell airs positive spots touting her record.

It has allowed the incumbent to stay above the fray. The Cantwell campaign turned down an appearance last weekend as Robert Mak devoted his half-hour show on KING/5 to the senator.

She has agreed to just two debates, one before a business audience in Spokane and the other in a Seattle TV studio.

Running out the clock, and letting others do your dirty work doesn't exactly race the blood of American democracy.

Cantwell has highlighted a high point of her Senate record, her advocacy of new energy technologies and defense of Washington against energy rip-offs (e.g., Enron) and schemes to emasculate federal protection of Puget Sound.

Still, there was Democratic State Chairman Dwight Pelz, the morning after the primary, raising the Democrats' oldest boogeyman, charging McGavick would "privatize" Social Security.

How could he? President Bush's plan for individual savings accounts tanked in a Republican-run Congress.

Our state's voters showed their sense for sleaze in Tuesday's primary.

They re-elected state Supreme Court Justice Gerry Alexander and rejected the lavish smear campaign against him by groups fronting for the Building Industry Association of Washington and Americans for Tort Reform.

Given the religious right's participation in the character assassinations and distortions, they ought to consider downsizing to The Nine Commandments and jettison: "Thou Shalt Not Bear False Witness Against Thy Neighbor."

Looking ahead to November, here are a few suggestions for voters:

Sleazy Spots: If you see a TV ad using black-and-white "ax murderer" photos, presume that the pictured politician has ticked off at least one big moneybag/special interest -- and deserves your support.

Golden Oldies: If the Democrats start using Medicare and Social Security, and the Republicans try to demagogue immigration, assume that creators of the TV spots or mailings have nothing new -- or constructive -- to offer and want to scare you.

Close Encounters: It's your country, so pay some attention to how it's governed. In 1858, thousands of Illinois farmers drove wagons for miles, and sat in the hot sun for hours, to see Abraham Lincoln and Stephen Douglas debate.

At least, tune in for an hour when the Senate candidates debate. Consider spending another hour-and-a-half at a civic club, or chamber of commerce, or League of Women Voters candidate forum.

We insist on voting for so many public offices, but then tune out the candidates.

Oh, yeah! Don't let the Robert Novaks and Larry Sabatos come into our house and tell us what we're going to do. That's our business.

P-I columnist Joel Connelly can be reached at 206-448-8160 or joelconnelly@seattlepi.com.

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