Legislative control hangs in balance

In more than a dozen legislative districts throughout Washington, winners and losers in the Nov. 2 election likely will be decided by wafer-thin margins.

And the stakes are high.

Losing one seat would cost Republicans their majority control of the Senate.

If Democrats lose four of the 52 House positions they currently control, they would cede the speaker's gavel.

That's why about 15 races across the state are being followed so closely by the parties. Their outcome will determine who gets to spend billions of dollars in tax money, the direction the state takes on issues ranging from medical malpractice reform to environmental regulations and likely will decide how successful the next governor will be. If Democrat Christine Gregoire or Republican Dino Rossi face a Legislature controlled by the other party, their options are limited.

In 2002, just 1,400 more Republican votes spread out over four House races would have been enough for that party to win those seats and the House majority, state Republican Party Chairman Chris Vance said.

"We are one of the most closely divided states in America, and I expect it to be very close (again)," Vance said.

The parties are focusing on select races for several reasons.

They are open seats. They are close districts that may be influenced by momentum from the presidential election. Or, they are changed because of redistricting.

And the candidates in the 16 races identified as in play by the parties have raised more than $2 million in cash and in-kind contributions. In the Senate races, $1.2 million has been raised; in the House, $870,000. And the Democrats are raising more money than the Republicans -- $656,000 to the GOP's $542,000 in the Senate contests and $514,000 to $355,000 in the House.

In 2002, the total contributions to all Republican and Democratic legislative candidates was $16.4 million.

Democratic strategist Christian Sinderman works for Gregoire and many of the candidates embroiled in battleground district campaigns.

He said the legislative races represent not only a sharply divided electorate, but also a distinct contrast in future policy-making.

Democrats would change the way the state buys prescriptions drugs, manages health care and scrutinizes tax exemptions.

Republicans would change the way business is regulated, laws regarding medical malpractice awards and the tax structure, among other things.

Not surprisingly, both parties predict they'll win the governor's race and majorities in the 98-member House and the 49-member Senate.

"I feel very good, because the top of our ticket is strong," Vance said. "That's going to really help our legislative candidates. When you look at the success Republicans have had in the past 10 years, it has come despite the top of our ticket losing. Our candidates have always had to run uphill."

Vance also sounded a note of caution. "We have more competitive open seats to defend than the Democrats do," the GOP chairman said. "We are having to spend a lot of time and resources defending our open seats instead of playing offense."

Don Brazier, longtime political observer in Olympia who was a Republican during his political tenure but now considers himself an independent, agreed that Republicans are going to be on the defensive but not about the probable outcome.

"Democrats will probably take back the Senate by one or two seats," Brazier said. "The Republicans have about three highly competitive races, from my point of view. And there really aren't any Democratic seats that are in real jeopardy."

Of those, Brazier said the Republicans will have to struggle to hold on to the 49th District.

Sen. Don Carlson, R-Vancouver, has a tenuous grip in the district that votes heavily Democratic.

"He is a very good senator," Brazier said. "But he's in a Democratic district and has a very difficult race."

In the uncontested Senate primary election, Democratic challenger Craig Pridemore received 9,912 votes compared with Carlson's 6,316.

In the House races, Brazier said he expected the Democrats to pick up four new seats based on polls and expectations that Democratic candidate for president John Kerry will carry the state.

"Gore carried this state by 100,000 votes," Brazier said. "I wouldn't be surprised if Kerry gets 200,000 votes, and if so, there is going to be an impact down the ticket -- based on common sense and history for the past 35 years."

A sampling of key races that could tip the balance in Olympia are:

The 6th District in Spokane -- Democrat Laurie Dolan lost narrowly to Republican Sen. Jim West in 2002. Vance of the Republican Party said Brad Benson is a strong candidate for the party but that the race will be "a dogfight."

In the Eastside's 41st District, Republican Sen. Jim Horn faces a challenge from Democrat Brian Weinstein.

Democratic strategist Cathy Allen predicts a win based on Weinstein's strong campaign and a voter demographic that is changing from sure-thing Republican to swing district.

"The Democrats are making a run at Horn," Vance said. "I'd be lying if I didn't say the Eastside has become more competitive for us. We have to defend that."

In the 26th District, Rep. Patricia Lantz faces a serious challenge from Republican candidate Matt Rice.

Rice, a doctor, is creating a microcosmic case study out of Republicans' call for medical malpractice reform.

The Democrats will have to defend Hans Dunshee's position in the 44th District. Dunshee won the district in a close race. Redistricting makes the district trend more Republican and might make life harder for the liberal Democrat.

Allen, the Democratic strategist, said the biggest unknown in the coming weeks will be possible independent expenditures, or third-party ad campaigns.

She said incumbents such as Sen. Mary Margaret Haugen, D-Camano Island, are in conservative districts and quite possibly in the sights of Republican operatives hoping to knock her out. "We'll have to watch out for those seats," Allen said.

Vance said with more money Republicans could target challenges such as Haugen.

But "money is finite" he said.

Vance in no way predicts a Republican landslide this year, but picking up four seats in the House "is very doable -- obviously."