I-884 pitched as make or break for poor

If Washington voters approve Initiative 884, low-income and minority families stand to gain the most from the multibillion-dollar infusion for the state's ailing public education system, lawmakers and experts say.

But if the measure fails and education spending doesn't increase, those families can expect to be hammered across the board -- from a shortage of preschool slots to restricted college admissions.

And that, experts warn, could have long-term implications for the state's work force.

"The demography of almost every state is changing. There are more poor kids in the pipeline heading to education," said Thomas Mortenson of the Iowa-based Pell Institute for the Study of Opportunity in Higher Education.

"These kids are not cheap to educate, but they do represent a growing share of the state's work force. So if you don't educate them, they will not be as productive as the people they are replacing."

I-884 would raise roughly $1 billion a year -- divided among all levels of education -- by raising the state's portion of the sales tax from 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent. The initiative, on the Nov. 2 ballot, requires a simple majority to pass.

Proponents portray the measure as a godsend -- giving disadvantaged preschoolers a head start, reducing K-12 class sizes, boosting high school graduation rates and getting more students into colleges and universities.

Opponents say the initiative places too much trust in government to spend the money wisely, pumps big bucks into programs with questionable track records, and could damage the fragile state economy by driving some retailers out of business and sending tight-fisted shoppers to sales-tax-free Oregon.

While the measure has the support of many leading educators and legislators, the public appears undecided. In a recent Associated Press poll, only 52 percent of voters favored I-884.

Experts say time is of the essence for improving Washington's education system -- and expanding access.

A quarter of all working families -- and 30 percent of all children -- in the state are low-income, according to a recent study. Thirty-four percent of minority families are considered poor.

People from minority groups in Washington are expected to make up 23 percent of the total population in 2005, up from 16 percent in 1990, according to the Office of Financial Management. Latinos are the state's largest ethnic group.

Hispanic enrollment in some school districts in the Puget Sound region has increased by more than 1,000 percent since 1986, according to studies by the Seattle-based Latino/a Education Achievement Project.

Graduating from high school and getting into college is a major obstacle for many Hispanic students.

"I'm really worried about this," said Latino/a chairman Ricardo Sanchez. "If we can't get the slots funded somehow, through the Legislature or through this initiative, the squeeze is going to be on, and the process for getting admitted is going to be that much more difficult.

"While we have some cream of the crop, the percentages are small. So our kids are going to be squeezed," he said.

As testing requirements raise the bar for high school graduation, Sanchez said, a growing number of Latino youths won't qualify for a diploma.

Every state has been increasing graduation standards, "recognizing how important education levels are for the future," said Ross Wiener, policy director for The Education Trust, a Washington, D.C.-based non-profit that promotes high academic achievement.

No Child Left Behind, the federal reform law, is holding states to those standards. But school districts in lower-income areas are suffering under the weight of high standards and flagging state budgets.

A new study by The Education Trust found that Washington, like most states, provides less money for its poorest districts. In 2002, schools in poor areas received an average of $173 less per student than schools in affluent areas. Districts with the highest minority enrollment received $333 less than their predominantly white counterparts, according to the study.

"By the national perspective, when budgets were flush in the 1990s, high-poverty districts were doing better, but as soon as budgets turned sour those gains were the first to go," said Wiener.

Education reforms are necessary, but schools still need better funding, Wiener said. "There comes a point at which there is not enough money to provide a basic education system."

That point hasn't arrived yet in Washington, said Marsha Richards, an education analyst with the Evergreen Freedom Foundation, a conservative think tank that has been vocal in its opposition to I-884.

Richards concedes that the state system has problems, such as high dropout rates and hundreds of schools where not enough students passed the Washington Assessment of Student Learning.

Instead of sinking more money into current programs, Richards argues, lawmakers should adopt other changes, such as deregulating schools, changing how teachers are paid to create a reward structure for excellence and increasing the number of hours college faculty members teach. "They need to have the pressure on them to overcome the entrenched interests ... that really don't want to see these kinds of reforms in education," she said.

Legislators who have chaired education-funding committees say reforms alone cannot solve Washington's education woes.

Without more state money for higher education, "the only choice is to increase tuition, which is a user-fee cost increase," said Sen. Don Carlson, R-Vancouver, the Senate Higher Education Committee chairman.

"If higher education is an investment for everyone across the board -- not just an elitist facility for those who can afford it -- then we can't just do it with tuition. We'll have to have financial aid and some kind of increase in the sales tax," Carlson said.

His counterpart in the House, Seattle Democrat Phyllis Gutierrez-Kenny, agreed.

"If the initiative fails, we're going to have to take a very, very hard look at how do we raise revenue," she said. "A lot of people are saying no new taxes, and that's not going to fly."

IMPACT OF I-884

If it passes, Initiative 884 will increase the state sales tax from 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent and generate roughly $1 billion for education spending annually. According to the state Office of Financial Management, the initiative would raise $4.7 billion in the first five years. The money would be spent as follows:

$2.3 billion to K-12 schools to reduce class sizes, extend learning opportunities after school, provide some salary increases and pay for professional development.
$1.9 billion to increase state-funded higher education enrollments by at least 25,000 full-time enrollments, expand financial aid and boost state-funded research.
$464 million to expand preschool opportunities for roughly 10,000 low-income children ages 3 and 4.
$23 million for administration and statewide projects by a citizens oversight board.

BOTH SIDES OF THE ISSUE

Initiative 884 aims to bolster Washington's public education system by raising a billion dollars a year by increasing the statewide sales tax. As the election nears, here are some key questions.

The opposing view comes from the Evergreen Freedom Foundation, a conservative think tank. Taking a pro-I-884 stance is Citizens for the Education Trust Fund, an offshoot of the League of Education Voters.

Q: Would I-884 make Washington's sales tax the highest in the nation?

Opponents: Yes. The actual increase, in real dollars, is 15.4 percent, even though it is cleverly marketed as a "penny" increase.

Proponents: Five states have higher combined local-state sales tax rates.

The facts: Increasing Washington's sales tax to 7.5 percent under I-884 will make it the highest statewide tax in the nation, according to the state Department of Revenue. Several states do have higher combined state-local sales tax rates: Arizona, Arkansas, Alabama, Louisiana and Oklahoma. Under I-884, King County's new combined rate would be 9.8 percent.

Q: What would the economic impact of the measure be?

Opponents: The Washington Policy Center estimates I-884 would result in the loss of 10,000 jobs in the private sector, most of them in retail businesses. The state's poorest families would be hit hardest, as would businesses in border communities where residents can easily cross state lines.

Proponents: The impact of a penny increase in the state sales tax on Washington's families is real, but it may not be as large as some imagine. A family with an income of $40,000 to $50,000 a year will pay $15 to $18 more a month. Legislation passed by Congress would allow Washington residents who itemize to deduct their state sales tax on their federal returns.

Q: Will the Legislature be able to spend money generated by I-884 on something other than education?

Opponents: Yes. Legislators can amend an initiative with a super-majority vote the day it passes or with a simple majority after two years.

Proponents: No. I-884 has strict provisions to ensure that dollars deposited in the Education Trust Fund can be spent only for improvements in preschool, K-12 and higher education. I-884 requires the Legislature to maintain current levels of education funding before trust fund money can be spent.

The facts: After two years, the Legislature can alter any part of the initiative -- including dissolving the citizens oversight board designed to monitor trust fund spending -- with only a majority vote.

Q: If I-884 passes, will class sizes be reduced? Will the high school graduation rate improve?

Opponents: The question of improving graduation rates is secondary to the fact that there's no guarantee class sizes will be reduced by I-884 funds. School districts have the final say over allocations, so they may not choose to reduce class sizes. Class size is important, but only in the context of the things that matter most for students in the classroom: high-quality teachers; clear academic standards; strong school leaders; deregulation that allows innovation.

Proponents: Yes. I-884 allows districts to pay for class-size reduction and a short list of other improvements, such as all-day kindergarten, extended learning, teacher training and parent involvement. Districts may also focus on reducing class sizes in middle and high schools. I-884's investments in early childhood education and K-12 education will reduce the dropout rate and increase the number of high school graduates.

The facts: "Sometimes reducing class sizes works, and other times it doesn't," said Eric Hanushek, an expert on education spending with Stanford University's Hoover Institution. The Washington Research Council, which studied the effects of I-884, said the number of high school graduates should increase.

Q: If I-884 passes, how many teachers will be hired and what impact will that have?

Opponents: I-884 doesn't specify a number of new teacher hires. It does provide $5,000 to $15,000 bonuses for teachers who earn national board certification. Unfortunately, this certification has little or no value in terms of student academic achievement, because teachers completing the process are not required to show actual student academic achievement to earn their certification.

Proponents: I-884 will pay for at least 10,000 more teachers for preschool, K-12 and higher education. Having more preschool teachers means more children will start school prepared to succeed. More K-12 students will graduate high school better prepared for college. Having more college faculty means more opportunities for students to achieve career goals.

The facts: Terese Emry, director of the privately funded Washington Initiative for National Board Teacher Certification, said certification is being "embraced across the country" as a standard that improves education.

P-I reporter Jake Ellison can be reached at 206-448-8346 or jakeellison@seattlepi.com

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