Cantwell's lead over McGavick nearly gone

Dwindling voter support for U.S. Sen. Maria Cantwell's re-election bid has put her in a statistical toss-up with her Republican opponent, according to a new poll announced Wednesday.

Rasmussen Reports, an independent national polling firm, said a survey of 500 likely Washington voters June 13 showed the Democratic incumbent leading challenger Mike McGavick 44 percent to 40 percent. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.


	Cantwell

Rasmussen's last five monthly polls have shown a gradual erosion of Cantwell's support as well as a steady shrinking of her lead over McGavick, a former insurance executive and former Senate aide. In January, Rasmussen said Cantwell was favored by 51 percent of voters and McGavick by 36 percent.

While some political experts are skeptical of Rasmussen's automated telephone-polling methodology, the firm claims to have been the nation's most accurate pollster during the 2004 presidential election. And other surveys have shown a similar narrowing of Cantwell's lead.


	McGavick

Rasmussen said Cantwell was viewed favorably by 53 percent of likely voters and unfavorably by 42 percent, including 20 percent who viewed her "very unfavorably." McGavick, who has never run for elective office before, was viewed favorably by 46 percent and unfavorably by 35 percent.

Hovering 6 percentage points below 50 percent in a head-to-head matchup is a big danger sign for an incumbent. In a news release, Rasmussen attributed Cantwell's eroding support largely to her past backing of the Iraq war and her vote against an attempt to block the nomination of Samuel Alito to the U.S. Supreme Court.

Both positions have angered voters on Cantwell's left. She now has two anti-war opponents in the Democratic primary as well as an anti-war Green Party opponent. The Rasmussen announcement didn't say whether the unaccounted-for 12 percent of those polled were undecided voters, backers of Cantwell's non-Republican opponents or a combination of the two.

Cantwell "has not had the best of times in the last half-year," David Olson, a University of Washington political scientist, observed.

"Her party is split" on the Iraq war, he said, noting the mixed reception Cantwell received at the state Democratic Party convention in Yakima on June 3: "Any time you see the incumbent booed and party stalwarts having to intervene to turn those dissident voices off, that's not good."

However, Olson and others believe Cantwell has ample time to turn public opinion around, especially as a Democratic incumbent facing a Republican challenger in a Democrat-leaning state in what is thought to be a tough election year for the GOP.

"This year in this state, I think the road ahead is just too long" for McGavick, said UW political scientist Mark Smith. He said voters haven't been given a compelling reason to vote Cantwell out nor to vote McGavick in. And Cantwell has raised far more campaign money than her opponent, "so she will have a chance to get her message out," Smith said.

Olson also expects Democrats eventually to pin down McGavick -- who has tried to stress his independence and his abhorrence of partisanship -- on issues on which he might not be seen favorably by most Washington voters.

Of the Rasmussen poll results, McGavick said, "We're obviously pleased with the progress that we continue to make, and the trend is as important as anything, and we think that the message of civility and common sense as opposed to what we see in Washington, D.C., these days is taking root."

Uttering the standard mantra of a candidate for whom a poll shows disappointing results, Cantwell spokeswoman Amanda Mahnke said, "The only poll that counts is the one on Election Day, so we're going to work hard for every vote and win in November."

P-I reporter Neil Modie can be reached at 206-448-8321 or neilmodie@seattlepi.com.

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