Expect hot legislative races this year

OLYMPIA -- In a year already dominated by politics, an old guard exodus from the Legislature and new rules for the state primary are setting up what promises to be a very active campaign season.

In the state House, at least nine seats, including two in coveted Seattle districts, are up for grabs. At least two Senate positions are also in play.

And under the new "top two" primary system, races in districts that lean heavily toward one party will no longer be settled with the primary. The two candidates who get the most votes will continue to battle until the November election -- even if they hail from the same party.

Two years ago in Seattle, a rare open seat in the 43rd District drew six Democratic candidates and yielded the most expensive primary in state history. This year, Rep. Helen Sommers' retirement (36th District) and Rep. Jim McIntire's (46th District) bid to become state treasurer could be openings for another Democratic free-for-all.

Democrats Reuven Carlyle and John Burbank are already vying for Sommers' open seat.

Carlyle said the "wave of energy for change" in the presidential race has a ripple effect and that the top two primary has completely changed the nature of the race.

In left-leaning Seattle, the primaries are almost sure to narrow the field to two Democrats for the November general election.

"It's going to be a strong, long marathon," Carlyle said. Before, "In these overwhelmingly Democratic districts, it would have been over Aug. 19 (the day of the primary) ... now the race goes all the way to the general."

The long-haul race will cost at least $300,000, he said.

"It's absolutely going to cost more money and a lot more time and effort," Carlyle said.

Political strategist Cathy Allen said the new primary and the likely possibility that two Democrats will face off in the November election profoundly changes the electoral demographics.

In past years, Seattle voters who picked the party's candidate and by default the heir to the position were typically older and more partisan.

Allen said that with the huge turnout expected for the presidential race, the electorate would be more moderate and younger, between 42 and 45 years old on average compared with 57 to 58 years old in the primary.

"I anticipate a huge outpouring of young votes," Allen said. "They, by their very nature, are more likely to be anti-old timer and will be looking for the young blood, new ideas new voices and basically new energy. The theme this year is not same old, same old -- it is change."

Another change in the dynamic: Seattle's Republican voters.

"We all know who they are," Allen said. "There are at least 20 percent who are looking for a more moderate candidate."

Allen said she is not working for either candidate but plans to endorse Carlyle.

But she said all indications are that Burbank and Carlyle would be competing right on through to November.

Allen said it's difficult to overstate how much the Supreme Court's decision to uphold the voter-approved top two primary will change local politics.

"That's why I've always said, 'When it comes to politics in Washington, if you don't like it, all you have to do is wait around,' " she said.

In addition to Sommers and McIntire, seven state representatives and two senators are not seeking re-election. They are:

Democratic Reps. Shay Schual-Berke of Normandy Park, Bill Fromhold of Vancouver, Patricia Lantz of Gig Harbor and William "Ike" Eickmeyer of Belfair.

Republican Reps. Bob Sump of Republic, Joyce McDonald of Puyallup and Lynn Schindler of Spokane.

In the Senate, Democrats Harriet Spanel from Bellingham and Brian Weinstein of Mercer Island have said they would not run for re-election this fall -- though Weinstein wavered, suggesting he might change his mind.