Smidgen of good news in state budget

Thursday, November 14, 2002

By DAVID AMMONS
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

OLYMPIA -- Washington's multibillion-dollar budget mess came into sharper focus yesterday when a state panel nailed down estimates for school kids, prisons and social and health programs for the next two years.

The bottom line shaved $30 million from the $2 billion projected deficit -- a minuscule amount, but good news nonetheless, said state budget Director Marty Brown.

"This is the first bit of positive information we've gotten in a long time," said Rep. Barry Sehlin, R-Oak Harbor, House Republicans' budget leader.

The Caseload Forecast Council's November update, along with the state revenue update due out tomorrow will be used in writing the governor's budget proposal. A September revenue forecast deepened the government's financial worries by subtracting nearly $300 million in projected income.

Today, Gov. Gary Locke planned to outline his strategy for writing a "lean" state budget plan to send to the Legislature on Dec. 17. Brown said the governor still isn't talking about tax increases and is concentrating on a $22.7 billion proposal using existing revenue.

The caseload panel confirmed that spending pressures are continuing, but not quite as much as they had predicted in June. Costs for public schools and medical-assistance caseloads are down a bit from earlier projections; costs for prisons and nursing homes are up.

Overall, the slightly lower numbers should save the state about $30 million, Brown said.

Washington has about 959,000 public school students, and enrollment is forecast to grow about 1,000 next school year and 1,400 the following academic year. In 2004-05, enrollment would be about 4,000 lower than previously forecast.

The cooling economy is causing some people to leave the state, and fewer than expected students are entering the Running Start program, which allows high school students to earn college credits.

Bilingual education enrollment growth also is flattening, and special education is barely growing.

The adult prison population is expected to grow a bit, about 100 a year more than previously forecast. The current count is 16,217 behind bars or on work-release. That is expected to increase to 16,902 by fiscal 2005. About 93,000 are on community supervision of some kind.

The welfare program called Temporary Assistance to Needy Families is growing more slowly than projected, even with the recession. About 52,300 clients are on the rolls now, and that's expected to rise by about 1,200 by fiscal 2005, down about 2,000 from the June forecast.

Projections also are down for the general assistance unemployable benefits for single non-working people and a program providing temporary aid for people being shifted to federal assistance.

Medical assistance programs for needy adults, children and the aged, blind and disabled are projected to grow more slowly than expected.

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