Bush backlash could hurt state GOP

Saturday, April 8, 2006

The low ratings for President Bush in the latest AP-Ipsos survey means Republican candidates in Washington state face longer odds in winning election this fall, both Democratic and Republican consultants said Friday.

The GOP candidate for U.S. Senate, Mike McGavick, faces an especially tough challenge in his effort to dislodge incumbent Democrat Sen. Maria Cantwell, they said. And the risk factors are high, they said, for U.S. Rep. Dave Reichert: He's a first-term Republican from a district east and southeast of Seattle that voted for Democrat John Kerry in the 2004 presidential election.

Democrats hope the upcoming election will be the reverse of 1994, when the Republicans took over Congress from the Democrats with Democrat Bill Clinton in the White House. Democratic political consultant Frank Greer of Seattle, a veteran of national campaigns, said the "tidal wave" of anti-Bush feeling points to that scenario.

Dissatisfaction with the president almost always translates into lost seats for his party in midterm elections, said Travis Ridout of Washington State University, an associate professor of political science who specializes in polls and voter behavior.

"It's difficult to argue that that isn't going to be the case this term," he said.

That makes it hard for McGavick: "Unfortunately for him, he has that 'R' behind his name," Ridout said. And the political climate makes fund-raising easier for Democratic candidates such as Darcy Burner of Bellevue, who is running against Reichert, he said.

But Reichert, shrewdly, has sought to distance himself from the Republican establishment, Ridout said.

Reichert also gets a boost from his personal popularity with voters from his years as King County sheriff, former GOP state Chairman Chris Vance said.

Vance, now a private consultant, doesn't see a repeat in reverse of 1994: That year, there were many more incumbent Democratic congressmen in districts that voted for GOP presidential candidates than there are Republicans in Reichert's situation now, and the insurgent Republicans in 1994 had a far more coherent message in Newt Gingrich's "Contract with America" than the Democrats do now.

Nonetheless, Vance said: "There's no doubt that the tide is running against the Republicans. It doesn't make it impossible for the Republicans, but it makes it harder."

P-I reporter Gregory Roberts can be reached at 206-448-8022 or gregoryroberts@seattlepi.com.